Fred and Rudy

I think when all is said and done with these 2008 presidential elections, that Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani may go down as two of the worst run campaigns ever. Other men have come and gone but most of the people who have dropped out did not have a legitimate shot to win. Giuliani was the national front runner until recently, but is now a distant third possibly fourth in Florida. Fred Thompson was supposed to be the conservative savior riding in on the white horse to save the day, but the Fred hype was overblown and after several lackluster months of campaigning has dropped out after South Carolina. So what happened?

Fred seems to be the easier answer. He wanted to be president, but without having to actually work or do much to get the job. There was a lot of buzz around when Fred joined the race officially. If he had the hit the ground running and really got out there and hustled he may still be around today. However this does not seem to be Fred's nature and instead of hit the ground running he hit the ground ambling and never seemed to work up to even a jog. As opposed to most of the others running Fred did few events and for the most part his events were pretty uninspiring. There was the one tape that hit You Tube where Fred was begging for applause. The only two times that I saw any excitement in Fred was he got feisty at the South Carolina debate, and gave a fairly passionate although somewhat confusing speech the night of South Carolina primary when it was pretty clear the end was near. When Fred dropped out he did it via a two sentence press release. That pretty much sums up Fred 08.

It appears we are in the final stages of the crash and burn of Saint Rudy of 9-11. He road name recognition to the top of the polls, but has been a major disappointment since actual voting has begun. The only the only question you have about Rudy in the contests so far is whether or not he was able to do better than Ron Paul. Unlike Fred, Rudy has been out there campaigning and trying to woo the voters, but a strange thing happened in New Hampshire and now Florida. When Rudy Giuliani becomes more than a name and people get to know him better his poll numbers go down. He is trying revive his campaign in Florida but is fighting an uphill battle. The social conservatives never really liked him, McCain is beating him on the national security front, and Mitt Romney has the sunny Reaganesque vibe. Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann were talking about the timing of Rudy's run. The idea being that running on 9-11 is simply not playing as well in 2008 as it may have earlier. Say for instance Rudy could have run in 2004 with convention in New York City and much was made about 9-11 in that campaign season. However they had a nominee in 2004 and Rudy had to wait. While he was waiting Iraq has become a mess, and W has trashed the Republican brand name. Not to mention 9-11 not being on the forefront of people's minds like it was before. Maybe it's just what New Yorkers had already found out that beneath the shiny veneer of 9-11 hype that Rudy is an unlikable, thin skinned, vane, egotistical maniac who ran New York with an iron fist until the people got tired of his act. That the lead in the national polls was name recognition more than anything else, and as the country got to know Rudy more liked him less.

Update
Rudy Giuliani ended up finishing third in Florida and will be dropping out of the race. I have mixed feelings about Rudy dropping out. I would have liked to see Rudy get the nomination because he would have been killed in the general. However it would have scared me to have that man so close to winning the White House because you never know what might happen. So all in all it is probably for the best Rudy goes away now.

Where is the John McCain You Tube moment

In this age of the internet with web sites like You Tube, TMZ, and The Smoking Gun it is hard for a celebrity to keep a secret or behave badly in public. Some ill chosen words and questionable reaction finished George Allen's re-election and possible presidential hopes. Some recycled video of Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani that have statements from the past contradict current positions and statements. So with all the cameras and web sites out there it seemed like it was only going to be a matter of time before we had some kind of classic You Tube explosion from John McCain. A man who is known for having a bad temper, you could not help thinking that there was going to be an eruption from Mount McCain. Even a few months ago when his money was low and it seemed like his campaign was finished he managed to keep his temper. In fact I think it would be almost understandable if he had got angry and had a blow up about answering the same questions over and over again about his viability. However other than a couple awkward moments in some townhall meetings he has made it through without becoming a You Tube victim. There is still a long way to go and McCain will have lots of contact with the public, and my friends I have confidence we are going to see an explosion from John McCain at some point especially if things do not turn out well for him.

If we dated a candidate

They say dating is like a job interview. I think running for political office is a bit like that as well. As the various Republican and Democrats travel back and forth across the country selling themselves we get a peak at to what kind of person they would be on a date. I am basing this more on the image they present themselves on the campaign trail and not so much about their own personal lives. Although it several cases there will be obvious overlaps. Let’s start with the Republicans and switch over to the Democrats.

Mitt Romney’s actual story is pretty boring. Married young and is still married to the same woman and is the consummate family man. The image we get of what Romney is trying to sell to the country is different. He strikes me as the flashy corporate shark with the expensive suits, fancy sports car, and upscale yuppie condo. Oh sure he would be a fun date, because he will spend lots money. You will go to all the fancy restaurants and Broadway shows. He will wine and dine you all over town. However for all the flash and cash it does not cover up the fact that he is kind of dweeby. He has great hair and winning smile, but there is something missing. He just does not really connect with you. Besides you get the feeling he spends more time and money on his hair than you do.

Rudy Giuliani’s personal story and approach to running is a lot closer to each other, because Rudy is all about Rudy. All the people running have big egos but Rudy takes that to a new level. He is a New Yorker and like most New Yorkers he knows some people will get him and some people will not. Rudy is trying to get enough people to vote for him. However in Rudy’s case dating might not be the right comparison. Rudy has tried to be the sunny Reagany optimistic guy that Romney does so well, but in reality he is the mob thug dealing with the corner shop owner. It would be a shame if something bad happened to your nice country if you didn’t elect me president. So not exactly dating more like some creepy sexual harassment boss with the bad combover.

To me Fred Thompson’s approach to the campaign is the most interesting. The whole idea for this piece started with a conversation about Fred. He has come out and said he does like the process of running for president. He wants to be president, but is not really all that interested in actually doing the work to become president. So what kind of date does that make. Fred wants to get right to the good stuff. Come on honey lets have a good time we don’t have to go out or anything. Sorry buddy a six pack of bud and bag of pork rinds does not get it. People like to be wooed. So far the people are saying hold on there big fella, not so fast, you have win me over before I give it up.

Mike Huckabee is like that guy in your office that you do not know really well. You know he is religious and usually has funny joke or story to tell in the break room. He seems like a nice enough guy so you go out on a date with him because it may be fun. He probably can’t afford the fancy restaurant like that hot shot guy in sales. Mike takes you to this homey family diner with the real good fried chicken. There is something you like about him but are not sure if he is the one.

John McCain has been through this before he had a chance to become president in 2000, but the combination W, Karl Rove and McCain himself sunk his chances then. Then McCain was the front-runner last summer but his bloated campaign imploded and forced him to go renegade. He is the man who has had a business that went bust in a very big and public way. He was humbled but refused to give up and all he is saying now is give me a chance. He may be that person you dated a long time ago and it did not go so well. Maybe he lost his temper at the wrong time. Now that some time has passed you might be willing to give him a second chance, but you are not sure part of you likes him and part of you is a bit creeped out by him.

Then there is Ron Paul. Unless something very strange happens Ron Paul will not win the nomination much less the White House. But unlike Duncan Hunter, Paul’s campaign is garnering a lot of buzz largely from the huge amount of interest generated on the internet. Dating Ron Paul would be like going out with a really opinionated person. Unlike Romney who will say all the things you want to hear, Ron Paul will tell you exactly what is on his mind. The success or failure of the date depends on how much you agree with the person. Chances are you will agree with some things and not with others. Unlike most of the other Republicans the date will not be boring.

Now it is the Democrats turn and I will start with Hillary. Being the only the woman in the race it is a little different to look at Hillary. However one of the things that strikes me about Hillary is that she has been hurt before and that means that she is very selective about what people see of her. People that are close to Hillary say that she is very warm and personable but it is not a side the public sees very often. This has caused problems because the public thinks she is some kind of unfeeling robot. The date with Hillary has been a date on her terms and has been good at times and awkward at times. Maybe it is because of her feminist roots or maybe it is that she has "dated" some jerks in the past and is afraid of getting hurt again. She has tried to warm up and show us a different side but it is difficult.

Barack Obama is a sensation. He burst onto the scene with an amazing speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention, and has been on the rise since then. Obama is like Kurt Cobain unknown to huge rock star in a matter of months. We known more about him now, but there is still this fascination about him. America so far has been dazzled and star struck by Obama. He is inspired people like few politicians have in recent years. So he is the suddenly famous rock star and you are along for the ride with him. Everything is going great but you wonder in the back if your mind if it will last.

John Edwards has alternated between suave southern gentleman and hard-edged street preacher. I think he started out with the more genteel approach, but with the attention going to Clinton and Obama he has become more extreme in his approach. He is the guy trying to date the girl that is above his class and the more he tries the more indifferent she becomes or worse yet goes into great detail about her new guy.

Bill Richardson is about to drop out but I came up with comparison for him so I will write it anyway. Because to me Richardson is the classic lets just be friends. A really nice guy that you have a good time with on few dates, but after that he is just not what you looking for. You might give him a call down the road some time.

Dennis Kucinich is still in the race and has absolutely no chance to win. He is the guy in the bar with the wide collars and leisure suit but everyone else is wearing Armani and Brooks Brothers. Every once in awhile he says something interesting but for the most part is ignored.

The Ghost of Ronnie

The ghost of Ronald Reagan looms over this year’s group of Republican candidates. It started with the first debate in the Reagan library and the comparisons continued by candidates themselves, the press, and the public. With Romney’s coifed hair and sunny disposition he is the most obvious person trying to take that Reagan mantle but pretty much all the Republicans have been trying to be the one that bring the Republicans back to the heady days of the 80s. There is only one problem with the candidates trying to do this. They are trying to live up to a man who has become a legend.

The status of mythical Reagan has grown and grown since he left office in 1989, and came to a peak with the week long funereal celebration when he passed. It is like the coach that has to replace the retiring legend you a fighting the lethal combination of reality and myth. Plus you have people look back on the good old days and tend focus on the positive and overlook or downplay the negative. So Reagan is the Cold War Warrior who not only defeated the Russians, and took on the status quo in Washington. Less attention is paid to Iran Contra, ketchup is a vegetable, and some of the other dubious accomplishments of the Reagan years. So when striving to become the next Reagan you are trying to be a legend instead of someone who was an above average president.

The bigger problem may be that the Reagan Revolution has run its course. It was a coalition of libertarian leaning fiscal conservatives and social conservatives with organizations like the Moral Majority got involved in politics as a group. Now the fiscal conservatives are unhappy with the big spending in Washington, and add to that the unease of libertarian types with Patriot Act and other Big Brother like attacks on our civil liberties. So far their unhappiness is harder to gauge because the social conservatives voted heavily for Huckabee. New Hampshire will have more of those voters taking part. However, no matter what this group is not nearly as unhappy as the social conservatives. After 20 plus years of voting and working for Republicans they feel they have very little to show for all their work. Other than maybe Mike Huckabee none of the current Republican contenders are acceptable to the social conservatives, but Huckabee is hated by the fiscal conservatives. In the end none of the contenders have been able to appeal to all parts of the coalition.

The Reagan legacy looms large in 2008, and makes an already difficult cycle for the Republicans even harder. We will see what happens in the next month or so I have a feeling it will be messy.