I Pick Obama

I said that I was going to wait and see what happened on Super Tuesday. Even though there is no clear winner, I have made up my mind. Ever since John Edwards dropped out of the campaign, I have been trying to decide who to support. There are things I like and don't like about Obama and Clinton. I have been leaning toward Obama but now I have decided to support him in his run for the White House. When you get down to it the reason I support Barak Obama is very simply, the 90s are over and there is no reason to go back. Right now the Republicans are down and they are depressed. The hard core conservatives hate their probable nominee John McCain. However the Republicans would love to run against Hillary Clinton, and even though they may not fully support McCain nothing will motivate the Republican base like fighting against the Clintons. I don't see any reason to activate and motivate the sluggish Republican base. Besides even if Hillary Clinton does become the president there is a strong chance that it will be a return to the battle of 90s. It will be hard to move forward with another Clinton White House. Think about the heyday of right wing radio was during the Clinton years. Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity could have a field day bashing away at the Clintons again. Having said that it will not be easy for Obama. You have seen the stories that Obama was a Muslim and taught at madrasa. You have also seen the questionable story from the National Journal about Obama being the most liberal Senator. You have already seen many of right wing talking heads playing that story up. So far he had done well fighting those kind of stories, but I would like to see him a bit tougher. Another advantage Obama has over Hillary is he able motivate and excite people in a way Hillary can not. It is clear just be looking at results that Democrats are much more active and excited about their candidates this cycle. Obama supporters most embody that kind of raw enthusiasm. It just may be the excitement and positive nature of Obama's message may overwhelm the Rove like gutter fights the Republicans are known for. When you get beyond the excitement and into the details of Obama you begin to wonder what kind of president Obama will be and how he will be on policy issues. The most important question may be will he will be able surround himself with good people. I will be curious to what an Obama administration and cabinet would look like. Lots of people say that Obama does not have enough experience, but the experience issue does not really bother me. Chenney and Rumsfeld had lots of experience in government and see where that got us. I can't help thinking even with unknowns there is far more upside and promise with Barak Obama. This is a chance for something new and Obama can represent that change better than Clinton.

Update - This morning at the CPAC conservative love fest Mitt Romney annouced that he is dropping out of the race. I heard a couple of interesting things on talk radio this morning. There was one that was conservative Rush Limbaugh and one was progresive Thom Hartman. I listened to Rush for about 20 minutes at lunch and it appears without Romney he has given up on McCain and is instead saying that Hillary is our best hope. He wants to have Hillary as an opponent because he knows that will be the best thing to motivate this conservative base. Thom Hartman is at CPAC and he was all there was tons of anti-Hillary stuff but nothing about Obama. So in other words these conservatives have been planing and working on running against Hillary Clinton for at least two years now. I think Barak Obama is the best hope for the Democratic Party. We can not give the Republicans Hillary to run against.

Day After Super Tuesday

So it's a new day and the candidates look at their prospects to become the next president. For Obama and Clinton it is pretty much just another day. Obama won more states but Clinton won the big states like New York and California. Most of the talking heads said it was a draw meaning they will continue to campaign. John McCain is probably fairly perky this morning. He netted some big wins and may have mortally wounded the much hated Mitt Romney. John may be concerned the party is still a mess, conservatives do trust him still and he did not win the South. Speaking of the South Mike Huckabee came back from the edge by winning the ruby red states including his own state Arkansas. It is probably a pretty dark day in Romney. Mitt won the states he was expected to win but none of the others especially California. The Romney people are going to have the frank talk about the future of the campaign. No matter Mitt can take comfort in the fact that the people of Utah really, really like him.

What to do With Edwards Gone

I have been trying to what to do since John Edwards has left the race. I had already voted for him in the Tennessee Primary and still do not regret the vote. The only question I have now is who do I support moving forward. On one hand you have the experience of Hillary Clinton but you get the high negatives and her ability to unite the right wing and on the other hand you have Barak Obama with his vision and ability to motivate people but with you get sketchy details and lot of unknowns about how he would do in a general election. My gut reaction is to go to the Obama side but I am not sure. I was a supporter of John Edwards because I really liked him and wanted him to be the next president. So it is hard for me choose between the two survivors. I think for now I am going to see how things shake out tomorrow.

What's the Deal With Lieberman and McCain

The BFF John and Joe tour is hitting the trial hot and heavy. It is obvious that Lieberman doesn't care what the Democratic leadership or voters think about him. He got the Republicans in Connecticut to help get re-elected in 2006, and now he is embracing John McCain who is seen by some as being a black sheep in the Republican Party like Joe is with the Democrats. If you listen Rush Limbaugh and the right wing noise machine they have similar complaints about McCain. That he is not one of us and if anything takes great delight in going against the grain and do things to annoy the base of the party. Unlike Lieberman because John McCain is running for president he is far more active and interested in wooing the base and trying to prove that he is a true blue conservative. The question I have is the Joe and John tour really going to help McCain. I know they have Iraq and the war on terror in common and is probably the main reason they appear to be joined at the hip these days. However to me this just angers Democrats who already had plenty of issues with Holy Joe, and for McCain embracing Lieberman just proves that Rush was right all along about McCain. It just seems like an odd pairing. Maybe they should just give it up and become running mates, and would be the sort of Republican teaming up the sort of Democrat. McCain/Lieberman pissing of all the sides in 2008.

The Right Wing Hate Against McCain

I was skimming through Townhall to see what the right wing had on its mind today, and came across this little gem from the less famous brother of Rush Limbaugh, David.

McCain, the Anti-Conservative

Most of it was the many ways the McCain is big government liberal and not a true conservtive. You see the usual complaints against tax cuts, imigration, campaign finance, and so forth. It is only when he got to the part about Iraq that he that he really got nasty if not downright moranic, when offered this gem of conservative insight.

"Whoa, you object. When it comes to the most important issue of all -- the war -- McCain is more hawkish and more conservative than anyone. But even that is not entirely true on closer inspection. He's been good mostly on Iraq -- from a conservative perspective -- but very disappointing on opposing tough, life-saving interrogation techniques, in wanting to close down Gitmo, and in favoring constitutional protections for enemy combatants. Only liberals think like that. Only liberal instincts tell us that if we are tough on them, they'll be tougher on us -- as if they need any excuse to be barbaric toward us. They just are."

Aside from the handy euphemism of saying interrogation instead of torture, to say that McCain opposes torture because he is a secret liberal is perhaps one of the most idiotic things I have read or heard in awhile. Perhaps, and I may be going on a limb here perhaps McCain opposes torture beause he was tortured you bloated right wing tool. I am not a fan of McCain for a lot of reasons, but I think he gets to have the last word on torture simply because of what he went through. You morons on the right need to stop beating off to 24 and actually listen to someone went through "enhanced interogation".

Fred and Rudy

I think when all is said and done with these 2008 presidential elections, that Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani may go down as two of the worst run campaigns ever. Other men have come and gone but most of the people who have dropped out did not have a legitimate shot to win. Giuliani was the national front runner until recently, but is now a distant third possibly fourth in Florida. Fred Thompson was supposed to be the conservative savior riding in on the white horse to save the day, but the Fred hype was overblown and after several lackluster months of campaigning has dropped out after South Carolina. So what happened?

Fred seems to be the easier answer. He wanted to be president, but without having to actually work or do much to get the job. There was a lot of buzz around when Fred joined the race officially. If he had the hit the ground running and really got out there and hustled he may still be around today. However this does not seem to be Fred's nature and instead of hit the ground running he hit the ground ambling and never seemed to work up to even a jog. As opposed to most of the others running Fred did few events and for the most part his events were pretty uninspiring. There was the one tape that hit You Tube where Fred was begging for applause. The only two times that I saw any excitement in Fred was he got feisty at the South Carolina debate, and gave a fairly passionate although somewhat confusing speech the night of South Carolina primary when it was pretty clear the end was near. When Fred dropped out he did it via a two sentence press release. That pretty much sums up Fred 08.

It appears we are in the final stages of the crash and burn of Saint Rudy of 9-11. He road name recognition to the top of the polls, but has been a major disappointment since actual voting has begun. The only the only question you have about Rudy in the contests so far is whether or not he was able to do better than Ron Paul. Unlike Fred, Rudy has been out there campaigning and trying to woo the voters, but a strange thing happened in New Hampshire and now Florida. When Rudy Giuliani becomes more than a name and people get to know him better his poll numbers go down. He is trying revive his campaign in Florida but is fighting an uphill battle. The social conservatives never really liked him, McCain is beating him on the national security front, and Mitt Romney has the sunny Reaganesque vibe. Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann were talking about the timing of Rudy's run. The idea being that running on 9-11 is simply not playing as well in 2008 as it may have earlier. Say for instance Rudy could have run in 2004 with convention in New York City and much was made about 9-11 in that campaign season. However they had a nominee in 2004 and Rudy had to wait. While he was waiting Iraq has become a mess, and W has trashed the Republican brand name. Not to mention 9-11 not being on the forefront of people's minds like it was before. Maybe it's just what New Yorkers had already found out that beneath the shiny veneer of 9-11 hype that Rudy is an unlikable, thin skinned, vane, egotistical maniac who ran New York with an iron fist until the people got tired of his act. That the lead in the national polls was name recognition more than anything else, and as the country got to know Rudy more liked him less.

Update
Rudy Giuliani ended up finishing third in Florida and will be dropping out of the race. I have mixed feelings about Rudy dropping out. I would have liked to see Rudy get the nomination because he would have been killed in the general. However it would have scared me to have that man so close to winning the White House because you never know what might happen. So all in all it is probably for the best Rudy goes away now.

Where is the John McCain You Tube moment

In this age of the internet with web sites like You Tube, TMZ, and The Smoking Gun it is hard for a celebrity to keep a secret or behave badly in public. Some ill chosen words and questionable reaction finished George Allen's re-election and possible presidential hopes. Some recycled video of Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani that have statements from the past contradict current positions and statements. So with all the cameras and web sites out there it seemed like it was only going to be a matter of time before we had some kind of classic You Tube explosion from John McCain. A man who is known for having a bad temper, you could not help thinking that there was going to be an eruption from Mount McCain. Even a few months ago when his money was low and it seemed like his campaign was finished he managed to keep his temper. In fact I think it would be almost understandable if he had got angry and had a blow up about answering the same questions over and over again about his viability. However other than a couple awkward moments in some townhall meetings he has made it through without becoming a You Tube victim. There is still a long way to go and McCain will have lots of contact with the public, and my friends I have confidence we are going to see an explosion from John McCain at some point especially if things do not turn out well for him.

If we dated a candidate

They say dating is like a job interview. I think running for political office is a bit like that as well. As the various Republican and Democrats travel back and forth across the country selling themselves we get a peak at to what kind of person they would be on a date. I am basing this more on the image they present themselves on the campaign trail and not so much about their own personal lives. Although it several cases there will be obvious overlaps. Let’s start with the Republicans and switch over to the Democrats.

Mitt Romney’s actual story is pretty boring. Married young and is still married to the same woman and is the consummate family man. The image we get of what Romney is trying to sell to the country is different. He strikes me as the flashy corporate shark with the expensive suits, fancy sports car, and upscale yuppie condo. Oh sure he would be a fun date, because he will spend lots money. You will go to all the fancy restaurants and Broadway shows. He will wine and dine you all over town. However for all the flash and cash it does not cover up the fact that he is kind of dweeby. He has great hair and winning smile, but there is something missing. He just does not really connect with you. Besides you get the feeling he spends more time and money on his hair than you do.

Rudy Giuliani’s personal story and approach to running is a lot closer to each other, because Rudy is all about Rudy. All the people running have big egos but Rudy takes that to a new level. He is a New Yorker and like most New Yorkers he knows some people will get him and some people will not. Rudy is trying to get enough people to vote for him. However in Rudy’s case dating might not be the right comparison. Rudy has tried to be the sunny Reagany optimistic guy that Romney does so well, but in reality he is the mob thug dealing with the corner shop owner. It would be a shame if something bad happened to your nice country if you didn’t elect me president. So not exactly dating more like some creepy sexual harassment boss with the bad combover.

To me Fred Thompson’s approach to the campaign is the most interesting. The whole idea for this piece started with a conversation about Fred. He has come out and said he does like the process of running for president. He wants to be president, but is not really all that interested in actually doing the work to become president. So what kind of date does that make. Fred wants to get right to the good stuff. Come on honey lets have a good time we don’t have to go out or anything. Sorry buddy a six pack of bud and bag of pork rinds does not get it. People like to be wooed. So far the people are saying hold on there big fella, not so fast, you have win me over before I give it up.

Mike Huckabee is like that guy in your office that you do not know really well. You know he is religious and usually has funny joke or story to tell in the break room. He seems like a nice enough guy so you go out on a date with him because it may be fun. He probably can’t afford the fancy restaurant like that hot shot guy in sales. Mike takes you to this homey family diner with the real good fried chicken. There is something you like about him but are not sure if he is the one.

John McCain has been through this before he had a chance to become president in 2000, but the combination W, Karl Rove and McCain himself sunk his chances then. Then McCain was the front-runner last summer but his bloated campaign imploded and forced him to go renegade. He is the man who has had a business that went bust in a very big and public way. He was humbled but refused to give up and all he is saying now is give me a chance. He may be that person you dated a long time ago and it did not go so well. Maybe he lost his temper at the wrong time. Now that some time has passed you might be willing to give him a second chance, but you are not sure part of you likes him and part of you is a bit creeped out by him.

Then there is Ron Paul. Unless something very strange happens Ron Paul will not win the nomination much less the White House. But unlike Duncan Hunter, Paul’s campaign is garnering a lot of buzz largely from the huge amount of interest generated on the internet. Dating Ron Paul would be like going out with a really opinionated person. Unlike Romney who will say all the things you want to hear, Ron Paul will tell you exactly what is on his mind. The success or failure of the date depends on how much you agree with the person. Chances are you will agree with some things and not with others. Unlike most of the other Republicans the date will not be boring.

Now it is the Democrats turn and I will start with Hillary. Being the only the woman in the race it is a little different to look at Hillary. However one of the things that strikes me about Hillary is that she has been hurt before and that means that she is very selective about what people see of her. People that are close to Hillary say that she is very warm and personable but it is not a side the public sees very often. This has caused problems because the public thinks she is some kind of unfeeling robot. The date with Hillary has been a date on her terms and has been good at times and awkward at times. Maybe it is because of her feminist roots or maybe it is that she has "dated" some jerks in the past and is afraid of getting hurt again. She has tried to warm up and show us a different side but it is difficult.

Barack Obama is a sensation. He burst onto the scene with an amazing speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention, and has been on the rise since then. Obama is like Kurt Cobain unknown to huge rock star in a matter of months. We known more about him now, but there is still this fascination about him. America so far has been dazzled and star struck by Obama. He is inspired people like few politicians have in recent years. So he is the suddenly famous rock star and you are along for the ride with him. Everything is going great but you wonder in the back if your mind if it will last.

John Edwards has alternated between suave southern gentleman and hard-edged street preacher. I think he started out with the more genteel approach, but with the attention going to Clinton and Obama he has become more extreme in his approach. He is the guy trying to date the girl that is above his class and the more he tries the more indifferent she becomes or worse yet goes into great detail about her new guy.

Bill Richardson is about to drop out but I came up with comparison for him so I will write it anyway. Because to me Richardson is the classic lets just be friends. A really nice guy that you have a good time with on few dates, but after that he is just not what you looking for. You might give him a call down the road some time.

Dennis Kucinich is still in the race and has absolutely no chance to win. He is the guy in the bar with the wide collars and leisure suit but everyone else is wearing Armani and Brooks Brothers. Every once in awhile he says something interesting but for the most part is ignored.

The Ghost of Ronnie

The ghost of Ronald Reagan looms over this year’s group of Republican candidates. It started with the first debate in the Reagan library and the comparisons continued by candidates themselves, the press, and the public. With Romney’s coifed hair and sunny disposition he is the most obvious person trying to take that Reagan mantle but pretty much all the Republicans have been trying to be the one that bring the Republicans back to the heady days of the 80s. There is only one problem with the candidates trying to do this. They are trying to live up to a man who has become a legend.

The status of mythical Reagan has grown and grown since he left office in 1989, and came to a peak with the week long funereal celebration when he passed. It is like the coach that has to replace the retiring legend you a fighting the lethal combination of reality and myth. Plus you have people look back on the good old days and tend focus on the positive and overlook or downplay the negative. So Reagan is the Cold War Warrior who not only defeated the Russians, and took on the status quo in Washington. Less attention is paid to Iran Contra, ketchup is a vegetable, and some of the other dubious accomplishments of the Reagan years. So when striving to become the next Reagan you are trying to be a legend instead of someone who was an above average president.

The bigger problem may be that the Reagan Revolution has run its course. It was a coalition of libertarian leaning fiscal conservatives and social conservatives with organizations like the Moral Majority got involved in politics as a group. Now the fiscal conservatives are unhappy with the big spending in Washington, and add to that the unease of libertarian types with Patriot Act and other Big Brother like attacks on our civil liberties. So far their unhappiness is harder to gauge because the social conservatives voted heavily for Huckabee. New Hampshire will have more of those voters taking part. However, no matter what this group is not nearly as unhappy as the social conservatives. After 20 plus years of voting and working for Republicans they feel they have very little to show for all their work. Other than maybe Mike Huckabee none of the current Republican contenders are acceptable to the social conservatives, but Huckabee is hated by the fiscal conservatives. In the end none of the contenders have been able to appeal to all parts of the coalition.

The Reagan legacy looms large in 2008, and makes an already difficult cycle for the Republicans even harder. We will see what happens in the next month or so I have a feeling it will be messy.

Progressive 680 is No More

It is official Progressive Talk 680 is gone. It started this summer when WSMB started carrying St Louis Cardinals games. In other words they were going to cut into Air America for 162 baseball games. There were other signs that future of progressive radio was in trouble here like the fact the WSMB site had not been updated in some time, and still had a picture of Al Franken on the home page even though it has been many months since Al left Air America. The station is now an all sports format connected to the Fox Radio Sports Network. However there are already two all sports stations in this market and course you can still get Rush, Sean, and the right wing talkers. It is depressing that progressive talk did not make it here, but I think they really did try because I remember the billboards around town announcing the progressive talk format. However, the idea never took hold and one gets the feeling this format change has been in the works for awhile now. Hopefully someone else will make the plunge but for now I am not holding my breath.

Using That 9-11 Prop Again

Just when you thought the Bush administration could not get any lower, they once again prove they have no shame and at best a shaky grip of what right and wrong is. The report on the troop surge may be on September 11. Which means General Petraeus will come before Congress to give a report on how the surge has gone with the symbolic day of September 11th hanging over the background. Instead of dealing with the war in Iraq in a straightforward and logical manner the Bush administration will once again be pushing the same tired emotional 9-11 button. By doing this they are saying it doesn’t really matter what the general says to congress that the real message is we can not leave Iraq and to do so will mean have not learned the lesson of 9-11. It is hard to be shocked by anything these people do any more, but it once again shows the depths the Bush people will go to distract, stall, or avoid talking about Iraq or anything else they do not want to talk about in a serious manner. It indicates that the whole thing is just a big political game, and that it’s not about the planning or execution of the war but how you sell it to the American people. Several administration figures have talked about the Iraq War in terms of message and that failures have come from not selling it properly to the people. So now we have the latest attempt to sell this war and put into their context. Yes we will have General Petraeus talk to Congress but we throw in this not subtle reminder of what it is really about just in case the people did not catch all the other references and reminders to 9-11.

MSM is full of it

The following blurb was on First Read, which is MSNBC political blog.

Stealing The Spotlight: Edwards’ poverty tour comes to an end today, with stops in Virginia and Kentucky and a major speech. Per the campaign, Edwards will use this speech to sum his three-day tour and talk about the faces of poverty he met. Yet partly overshadowing Day Two of the tour was wife Elizabeth’s comments to Salon about Hillary Clinton. They weren’t as incendiary as Drudge made them out to be, but Elizabeth still made news -- as she did when she called Ann Coulter, or when it was revealed her cancer had returned. And now there’s a brand new campaign TV ad that features her, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported on TODAY this morning. We knew it was possible that a spouse might become the story in this presidential race. But just we also thought it would be Bill, not Elizabeth Edwards.


This is the kind of passive story that the MSM puts out there that can drive you insane. It seems like NBC news is saying that “Gee we would really like to cover the substance of the Edwards campaign, but it just out of our hands”. The reason Elizabeth Edwards is the bigger story is you made the choice for it to be the story. Chris Matthews interviewed John Edwards yesterday on Hardball and half the five minute interview was about Elizabeth in one way or another. Instead of taking some of the responsibility for their actions as far was is and is not a story, the MSM says that we report what people are interested in and they have no control over content. NBC news represents a large part of the small group of entities that provide news and information for the majority of Americans, and for them to say they have no control of the flow of news is simply insulting.

John Edwards in Memphis

The John Edwards event at MIFA, Memphis Inter Faith Association, last night was a great success. A crowd of about 300 people gave a great speech about poverty in America and how we approach these issues as a people and a government.

The choir from the First Baptist Church performed first and did an excellent job. After the choir there were three people that MIFA is helping through their various programs, and each one told the crowd about themselves and how MIFA has helped them. Senator Edwards came on after that and he spoke about how government can help people, but that it is people that start these movements. He made a reference to how Civil Rights movement started in towns like Memphis and not in Washington. I also like the way he addressed the media and how they frame and talk about what people care and don’t care about. I liked addressing the media, because there have been so many goofy stories about Edwards that have nothing to do with the issues. The crowd was very responsive and I think there was great amount of energy and enthusiasm.

I really liked the way John Edwards talked about government and what they can do, but also talked about people and what they can do to help. The Bush administration and specifically the Iraq War has divided the country and made everything highly partisan. The Administration has really tried to play up on these differences as a tool for re-election and a means to push their agenda through. So I think it is very important that the next president is the president of the whole country and not just the people who support him. I think John Edwards could be the person to do that job, and I was very happy to my small part to help that effort. Hopefully we will see a lot more of John in Memphis and all over the country in the next year and half or so.

Helping John Edwards in Memphis

Today I went out for a few hours and gave out flyers to promote the upcoming event that John Edwards in Memphis. It was the first of many chances where I get to help the campaign. I got a lot of different responses to Edwards and the event. Very little negative but I did get a little. One snooty Republican type told me “We do not need a Democrat in the White House”, and another lady was nice but firmly said “Sorry I am a Republican” I guess that means heck no. However several people were very excited about John and the event. One nice man said the John was just the kind of man he wants to vote for. The most interesting response came from two people giving away Red Bull. They were very excited about the event and the girl thought John was cute. I was not sure if they were excited about John Edwards or just riding on the buzz of one too many Red Bulls, but either way they were very nice and told us they would tell others about the event. Overall it was a very positive experience and I hope I was able to help in a small way to make sure that John has a good event here in Memphis.

To Impeach or Not To Impeach

Impeachment seems to be on a lot of people’s minds these days. Cable news, blogs, columns, and just about anybody with an interest in politics has an opinion on the subject. There are some who think that Bush and Cheney have committed multiple crimes against the American people and the Constitution and should be brought up on charges. Some who think the any kinds of charges are unfounded and that any attempt at impeachment is just a cheap political ploy. Then you get the split the difference people who say while there is a possible case for impeachment that is politically risky for the Democrats to try. I guess I fall in the middle myself. You can read the Washing Post articles on Cheney or see John Dean on Countdown and not see that Bush administration is operating by its own rules. Under the guise of the War on Terror that anything is justifiable under the excuse of keeping the country safe. While this has been harmful to our country and made a shamble of reputation there is not much we can do about it right now. One of two things would have to happen to make impeachment viable either there would need to be some major defections from the Congressional Republicans so that the mathematics would overwhelm the White House or something that would have to come out that proved beyond a shadow of doubt that Bush and company knowingly lied or did something illegal. Much is of the administration’s defense is built around executive privilege that he has the right to do these things because he is president. That has been challenged somewhat, but not completely. From this defensive position Bush, Cheney, and company have fought, scrapped, and dodged any attempt by the Congress to find what’s going in the White House and Vice President’s office on a myriad of topics like torture, spying, The War on Terror, Iraq, and the attorney firings just to name a few. From this position they can draw this process until the end of the term especially if the Republicans in Congress back them up. While I think the things these people have done is beyond horrible and in a just world they would be brought up on charges I don’t think that can realistically happen. Instead of a possible impeachment they Democrats should focus on winning the White House and expanding their majorities in the Congress in 08. Also try to figure how to gather more Republicans into the fold on getting us out of Iraq. I think would be easier to convince Republican Congressmen nervous about re-election that they need to rethink their views on Iraq. Besides a large portion of the Republican are very depressed about Iraq, immigration, and their choices for 08. There is nothing that will fire that base up faster than fight. Even if they are not happy about Bush’s performance, they will defend if they think he is being attacked by the Democrats. I still think it’s a possibility that the Democrats could go after impeachment, but I do not think it should be their main focus. Get us out of Iraq and get a Democrat in the White House 2009 because no matter what January 20, 2009 George Bush will be heading back to Crawford.

McCain in Freefall

I am not sure who the Republican nominee for 08 is going to be, but it is becoming clear that it will not be John McCain. For a long time I thought McCain was going to win almost by default, because the conservatives would not buy Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani. However after a couple of really bad months for him the McCain 08 campaign appears to be in complete freefall mode. His campaign manager and chief political strategist have both just resigned. This is on top of having to fire staff and taking stands on Iraq and immigration that managed to anger both moderates and conservatives. The problems may have started by speaking at Liberty University because the conservatives saw it as a ploy to woo them and it angered the moderates who liked the McCain that spoke against the religious right. The McCain Straight Talk Express is short on ideas, cash, and apparently time. He has faltered badly and now the question can he regain his traction. I think it is possible for McCain to recover, but it does appear to be an easy path for him. He has tied his reputation to Bush’s Iraq War and the news from there does not appear to be changing any time soon. The latest news is that the new Iraqi government has met none of the benchmarks set up before the surge and the news that will come out in September will not be good. He tied his name to an immigration bill that is DOA and only managed to make the conservatives he was courting furious. The McCain bills for immigration and campaign finance might be seen as trying to be bipartisan in some circles, but to the mostly conservative primary voters is only seen as a sell out and reasons not to trust him. As far as the other people running Fred Thompson seems to be the conservative darling du jour and to make matters worse Romney and Giuliani are hanging in there. McCain is not out yet but he needs some good news really, really soon.

Fighting the Talking Points

I cruise by the right wing blog Townhall from time to time to see what is on the right's mind. It usually some form of whining about mean or clueless liberals or how the right is not tough enough. Today Lorie Byrd wrote a column about the Rosie vs Hasllebeck silliness on The View a couple of days ago. Anyway I could care less about Rosie or Elisabeth said but Lorie Byrd made her points with all the these Republican talking points. Here is a sample of the column.

"Myths are born when an untrue statement is repeated frequently enough, and loudly enough, that many come to believe the statement must be true because they have heard it said over and over again, usually with no refutation. For too long conservatives have allowed statements like Bush “stole the election” and “lied us into war” to be repeated with little if any opposition."

Perhaps because these statements are true and it is hard to deny the truth of them. Maybe if you keep repeating they are not true, you can make yourself believe that. You can even make yourself believe W is a great president or that Saddam really had WMDs or that there a was connection between Saddam and al-Qaeda.

Here is the rest of her column.

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/LorieByrd/2007/05/25/republicans_should_follow_elisabeth_hasselbecks_example

I am not a big letter writer but I wrote Ms. Byrd a letter just to see how or even if she would repsond. Here is the letter.

First of all I do not like Rosie O'Donnell or Elisabeth Hasslebeck. So I do not really care who said what to whom. I simply do not like the way framed the issues in your column. I disagree with you lumping 9-11 conspiracy theories in with Bush stole the election, Bush lied us into war, and Ron Paul invited 9-11 to happen.

Let's start with the debacle of 2000. Before the election you have Katherine Harris purging voters and then you see her handy work again in the hanging chad fiasco. Then there is the simple Al Gore won the popular vote. You had the faux the demonstrations that were really people that worked for Bush or the RNC who’s only purpose seemed to be to stir up trouble and muddy the waters in trying to decide who the next president would be. Last but last but not least you get the bogus decision by the Supreme Court in Gore v Bush. Maybe he not did steal the election but just received the benefit of the forces that are working for him, kind of like what Ken Blackwell did for him in 2004. Besides stealing the election would require planning and if there is one thing these guys have shown is that they are very bad at planning things.

Next is the idea that Bush lied us into war. This seems to hinge around the world lie, as in knowingly mislead people. This of course is difficult to prove because nobody will ever know for sure. However it does seem pretty clear that the administration was very selective in the information that they used as proof that Iraq had weapons. Plus they relied on men like Chilabi and his bogus information even though most people said he was a liar and a con artist. Once again this goes back to planning. The Bush Administration took their shaky intelligence and went a step further by creating one of the worst war plans in history. So if you want to get into a semantic discussion about the word lie that's fine, but it is clear the Bush was not completely truthful in presenting his case for war. He also had the benefit of the media and a compliant congress (yes both Republicans and Democrats), who were dozing off and for the most part failed to ask the right questions.

Then there is calling Ron Paul a 9-11 conspiracy guy. This is simply not true. I can see in the oversimplified conservative thinking where everything is black and white and there is no room for shades of gray. However in reality based world things are not always so clear. What Ron Paul was saying is that Western interference in the Middle East over the past 50 years has been a factor in men like Bin Laden wanting to attack us. The US bombing Iraq for the 10 years after the first Gulf War, having troops in Saudi Arabia, and abandoning them in Afghanistan after the Russians left. Now one may ask where Ron Paul got such a kooky, perhaps it because it is because what bin Laden said. This does not justify or make what happened on 9-11 right, but it does explain why it happened. That was not a just a random act of violence or because of the right wing talking point of they hate us for our freedom which may be partially true but is not the complete answer. What Ron Paul said in that debate is not some crazed conspiracy theory, but simply acknowledged that our actions in the Middle East have consequences and if we ignore this in our foreign policy we are doomed to make the same mistakes over and over again. So no Ron Paul is not a nut, he just dared not buy into the oversimplified Republican talking points.

As far as the Bush caused 9-11 or let it happen or the whole host of conspiracies. I do not buy into the idea that Bush was directly involved. Once again the whole it goes back to the planning thing. However the war president did screw up by not paying attention to terrorism until it was too late. Plus there are several questions that have never been answered about that day. Like why were the planes not scrambled when they noticed something was wrong. Plus what the heck was Bush doing just sitting there reading My Pet Goat when he knew the country had been attacked. Even there are questions about what happened on 9-11 most of the conspiracies are either too far fetched or just out and out wrong. The real crime of 9-11 was that Bush has used it to hammer anybody that disagrees with him and of course he used it as an excuse to invade Iraq.

Anyway I will see what happens.

Al Gore in 08

The more time passes and the more times Al Gore says he is not running, the more I believe he is not running. I think there are several reasons to think that he is not running. Number one on that list is that he simply does not want to run. Also the Democrats are much happier with their choices for president. The main reason Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich are seriously thinking about running is that the Republicans are not pleased with their choices. Thompson is running double digit in the polls by only giving a few interviews and some speeches. Al Gore on the other hand seems to be facing an uphill battle against Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. I think several months ago that Gore was being coy about answering the questions about are you running in 08. He was saying no but giving himself an out by saying things like as of now I am not running. Now he is more definitive about saying he is not running for president. Aside from the fact there is a strong field of Democrats Al Gore likes just attacking the climate change issue. Also after running several times maybe Gore does not want to go through all the headaches and hassles that comes with running. He knows firsthand about the endless fundraising, handshaking, and giving the same speech over and over again that is required to run. That has to be very draining and you really have to have to be strong willed to go through that. All of these factors seem to point to the idea that Gore is not running.

This brings me to the question why do some of us want Gore to run anyway. The answer to that question seems pretty simple, and that is it only seems just and fair that Gore gets another chance. Candidate Gore is was not overly impressive but then again neither was George Bush. Then the whole Florida debacle happened and Bush was able to weasel his way into the White House with the help of James Baker, Katherine Harris, and the Supreme Court. Six years of George W. Bush as president has been an utter disaster, and it has only increased the idea that his “winning” in 2000 was a grievous error and simply wrong in so many ways. About the only good thing that has come out this administration is that his train wreck of a presidency has the set Republican Party back at least ten years and has destroyed the coalition that was created under the Reagan Revolution. Other than that I don’t there is anything you can point to out of this gang has done as being a major accomplishment. So given the disaster Bush has been maybe it is that sense fairness that some of think that Al Gore deserves another chance. However, that was then and this is now, and I can’t blame Gore if he does not want to go through that again. It just makes you wonder what President Gore would have been like.

Jerry Falwell

I have been thinking about the best way to express myself about the way I feel about the death of Jerry Falwell. It seems to me the right is too quick gloss over the bad parts of the man and all the left wants to do is focus on them. While I am probably more apt to lean to the negative when somebody like Christopher Hitchens comes out with a double barreled shotgun blast of what awful person Falwell is it makes me feel a little sorry for the man. However I think the good reverend is one of the main reasons the country is where it is now. Very divided and polarized and while some of that is the Iraq but I lot of it is the Religious Right making everything us versus them. Everything becomes how Christians are such martyrs to their faith and how they being chased out of the public square by the evils of secular culture. Gays, abortion, The ACLU, and any other symbol of secular life because the target of the Religious Right. Falwell was at the front of this movement in the 80s when he helped Ronald Reagan become president. Falwell and his ilk have turned religion into abortion and homosexuals even some people within the evangelical movement have come out and said being a Christian even being a conservative Christian is more than a couple of hot button issues. Even though Jerry is gone there are still people like Dobson and Robertson to keep hitting those hot buttons, and his Liberty University will continue to churn out college graduates who major in narrow minded thinking. Maybe Bill Maher said it best on Real Time Friday night, "Death isn't always sad."

Ron Paul on the Sunday Shows

Of the Sundays shows I watched this week I noticed Ron Paul came up in a sense because CNN had an interview with him and Fox News Sunday talked about the debate but the exchange with Rudy Giuliani was not even brought up.

On Fox News Sunday they talked about the debate they hosted on the All Star Panel segment. Most of the talk was about the exchange between Mitt Romney and John McCain. Ron Paul did not even come up. I think Ron Paul puts Fox News in awkward position, especially for Bill Kristol and Brett Hume. Kristol likes to paint the Democrats as weak on national defense and Ron Paul taking a less hawkish view means that not Republicans are in lockstep with the Bush foreign policy. It was little odd seeing the talking heads trying to justify that Paul was winning the poll after the debate, or in the post debate interviews Sean Hannity was very nice to most of the candidates except for Ron Paul who he tried to bully but Ron held his ground and did not give in to the bully boy routine. So when it came to Sunday the Paul/Giuliani exchange it just did not come up. I guess Juan Williams could have brought it up but he did not. I think like the poll it Ron Paul and anti-Iraq war Republican does not fit the Fox News narrative.

Ron Paul was interviewed on CNN and if nothing else Congressman Paul is feisty. He is not afraid to defend his foreign policy positions. Although it seems like his ideas on Republican foreign policy is a bit dated. He talked about Republicans getting us out of Korea and Vietnam. However the non-intervention Republican foreign policy seems about as current as poodle skirts. Maybe that is the overall point about the current Republican Party. When Reagan made the coalition with the Religious Right that means that Republican Party would no longer not be involved in people's personal lives. The current Bush administration has only made those connections stronger. Just looking at the discussion over Giuliani's pro-choice stance shows the power of the Religious Right. Speaking of W because of him and his administration the other shoe has fallen. The Republican Party under W is behind a far more aggressive foreign policy where the policy of not interfering with other countries is a thing of the past. Also the idea of not spending a lot of money is gone too. So Ron Paul may reflect the Libertarian views of the Republican Party it just does not seem to be the same party any more. I think Ron Paul would like to see more of that in his party but it just does not seem to be the case at least in the near future.